Should the Pistons Trade for Zach LaVine?
There comes a point in an NBA team’s rebuild where a consolidation move is the necessary next step. The Cleveland Cavaliers trading for Donovan Mitchell or the Minnesota Timberwolves acquiring Rudy Gobert are recent instances, where a rebuilding organization cashes in some of its assets to get a galvanizing star. The Detroit Pistons should be nearing that moment, and a star has reportedly become available that fits their needs.
Zach LaVine, who is in his seventh season with the Chicago Bulls, is reportedly on the verge of becoming available via trade according to The Athletic. On paper, LaVine makes a lot of sense for Detroit when healthy. The 28-year-old is an elite, high-volume three-point shooter (38.2% on 8.8 attempts per game for his career) and three-level scorer that the Pistons simply don’t have right now. LaVine is averaging 21.9 points per game this season, which would lead all Pistons. His 4.8 assists per game would be equal to Killian Hayes and second-highest on the team. LaVine can take pressure off of Cade Cunningham and, on some nights, simply take over and win games off his scoring. No question that he fits in the starting lineup. But there are some red flags that are tough to overlook, particularly with regard to LaVine’s injury history and contract.
LaVine tore his ACL in 2017 and has dealt with knee pain and soreness for several years, most recently requiring arthroscopic surgery in May 2022 to clean things up. He’s dealt with back and ankle injuries extensively throughout his career as well. For a player that relies on athleticism and lift like LaVine, lower body injuries are crippling to their output. Couple the injury history with his current contract, which will pay out roughly $129 million over the next three years, giving up significant assets for LaVine seems like quite the gamble. If the last few seasons of Troy Weaver are any indication, the Pistons are not quite that bold - nor should they be in this instance.
Then there is the issue of what it would cost to get LaVine, especially considering there will be myriad contenders also angling for him. The Bulls will likely be looking for a mix of win-now players, young prospects to build around, and/or draft picks. The injury concern and bloated contract figure will likely bring the price down, similar to the Bradley Beal trade. Detroit has several expiring contracts in James Wiseman, Monte Morris, Alec Burks, and Joe Harris that could give Chicago salary relief this upcoming offseason or be used as flippable assets immediately. However, the Pistons lack the draft capital that the Bulls would likely require. Detroit lacks full control of their first-rounders until 2028 and a package of second-round picks won’t move the needle for Chicago. But the Pistons do have something that could move the needle for the Bulls: Jaden Ivey.
Before talking about trading the fifth-overall pick in last year’s NBA Draft, it is worth comparing the Pistons potential package with some of the other teams who are likely going to be after LaVine. The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat have come up as potential landing spots, and they seem like better options at first glance. Both teams can give LaVine a win-now environment and will not rely on him as heavily as Detroit would, which should reduce his wear and tear. At this point in his career, LaVine is best suited to being the second or third option on a contender. The Lakers can send D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura in mid-January when they become trade-eligible, while the Heat can provide salary relief and have a few young players and some picks that may be enough. But neither team can give up a young player like Ivey.
And that should be where the line is drawn. Selling Ivey, who is still a promising guard with outstanding speed and offensive capabilities, this early into his career would be a daring and uncharacteristic venture for Weaver. Ivey is exceptionally young, progressively improved in his rookie season, and still fits a key need on the roster. Theoretically, Ivey is a younger version of LaVine with better passing chops and slightly lesser shooting prowess. The point being, if the Pistons are looking for a score-first shooting guard to put next to Cunningham, they should look to the player they already have on their roster that can do that. And if the front office wants to trade Ivey, they should play him to show other teams what they have, not staple him to the bench. While the cap situation for the Pistons is fluid, it will quickly fill up once they give extensions to Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and Ausar Thompson. Even with a rising salary cap year over year, LaVine will still command a hefty salary in the future. He has a $49 million player option in 2026-2027 - when he will be 32 years old. That could be an absolute albatross that hinders the ability to build out the roster when the young core is in its prime. Imagine getting to 2027 with an immediate need to add shooting or bench depth but being unable to because LaVine is owed too much. Then it becomes a waive and stretch situation that the Pistons are all too familiar with, and should do their best to avoid being in again.
There is an argument to be made, however, to just do the thing and get a player like LaVine. The Pistons are, at the time of this writing, fresh off a blowout loss to the Toronto Raptors. A 29-point shellacking where Detroit did not lead for even one second, prompting some immediate soul-searching. Cunningham said after the game that the Pistons have to be realistic with the fact that they are just flat-out bad. Good on Cunningham for saying the quiet part out loud, but it does not change the fact the Pistons are en route to another catastrophic season. There comes a point where you have to simply go out and get good players. Zach LaVine is a good player and would immediately lift the floor of Detroit, making an otherwise unpalatable season so far much more enjoyable. Cunningham, LaVine, Ausar, and Duren is a fearsome foursome as long as that fifth player is a shooter. That is a team that makes a lot of sense in the short term. Is it worth giving up a player like Ivey plus a few more assets to be more watchable? To a degree, yes. But those impulse buys more often than not lead to some regret.
There are consolidation moves, and then there are franchise-altering ones with immense immediate upside and precipitous pitfalls. Trading for Zach LaVine would undoubtedly put the Pistons into “win-now” territory, a place they have not been in for quite some time that would certainly generate fan interest. They would likely catapult up the standings and be in the mix for a play-in spot, but it isn’t a guarantee. Chicago has several All-Stars on their roster right now alongside LaVine and they are still on the outside looking in for even the play-in. It isn’t a sure-fire bet that Detroit will become a playoff team after making this move. While Detroit is on the cusp of having to make some decisions about their young core, risking it all for a player like LaVine does not seem like the gamble that the front office should be making. For this player, at least.
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