POP 2023 NBA Draft Profile: Jarace Walker

It's no secret that the Detroit Pistons have a difficult decision to make with the fifth pick in the draft. While rumors have swirled that they may attempt to trade back, if Detroit does decide to make their pick at 5, they'll have several intriguing prospects to pick from even if the presumptive top 3 of Victor Webanyama, Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller are gone. Out of the five or so options available to them at that spot, perhaps none is more potentially divisive than 19-year-old University of Houston forward Jarace Walker. Listed at 6'8 but measuring in at 6'6.5 without shoes, Walker possesses a blend of skill, strength and quick-twitch athleticism on both ends of the floor that evokes memories of similarly undersized but hyper-skilled power forwards who could dominate the post, play elite defense, pass at a high level and occasionally extend their offense beyond the three point line like Paul Millsap, UNLV legend Larry Johnson, or even Draymond Green.

Strengths:

Walker is, as already stated, a tremendous athlete. Despite his lack of height, he combines an absolutely ridiculous 7'2.5 foot wingspan with a massive, nearly 250 pound frame. For context, Walker at under 6'7 weighs about the same as 6'10 Jalen Duren and 7 footer DeAndre Ayton, and his wingspan isn't that far off from their's either. He isn't just some hulking brute, however, as Walker is able to throw down big time dunks and run the floor with ease.

https://twitter.com/joshaber_sports/status/1593374025782366208?s=20

These types of plays are common for Walker, as he's able to combine a deceptively quick first step, sublime footwork, and explosive athleticism both off the bounce and as a finisher at the rim. When that athleticism is utilized along with his powerful frame, he has the potential to absolutely devastate teams who try to play smaller defenders on him by beating them up in the post while also exposing larger players on the perimeter by blowing by them with his quickness.

What really makes Walker an intriguing prospect on the offensive end of the floor though, are his passing chops. Walker only averaged 1.8 assists per game at Houston, but much like current Piston Jalen Duren who only averaged 1.3 assists per game at Memphis. Walker's film, especially when digging back into his high school days, belies a far more polished passer than the numbers might initially indicate. While Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey will handle most of the playmaking duties for Detroit for the foreseeable future, the idea of complimenting their skills with two bigs with elite passing potential in Duren and Walker is tantalizing, conjuring images of the Golden State Warriors when Green and Stephen Curry coldly pick apart defenses to seemingly zero resistance. There is reason to believe a finished version of Walker could play anywhere between small forward and center in the right lineups, a level of versatility the Pistons desperately need.

https://twitter.com/CrainNBA/status/1665086273982169088?s=20

While the offensive upside is certainly there, Walker's main selling point from day one in the NBA will be his defensive ability and versatility on that end of the floor. His defensive skillset is immense, his raw numbers of 1.3 blocks and 1 steal per game look good, but he was one of only 10 players in college to have a block rate above 5.0 and steal rate above 2.5 last season, good indicators for future NBA success on that end. There's questions regarding his height, of course, but his huge frame, tremendous wingspan and fantastic quick-jump ability all help to mitigate some of those concerns when it comes to post defense.

However, his skill as a perimeter defender is what really sets him apart. Walker has arguably the best first step of any big in this class and, along with his quick feet, is able to both stay in front of players but also recover well if initially beaten off of the dribble. He's also an excellent help defender, as his high-IQ allows him to correctly diagnose when he's needed to contest shots or stay on his man. Take that overall skillset and versatility, and the Pistons could find themselves with a player that compares to Green in terms of passing and defense, but also can create and finish shots for himself.

https://twitter.com/Alley_Oop_Coop/status/1600601313670225920?s=20

Weaknesses:

For all of his physical tools and advanced skills for such a young player, Walker is far from a perfect prospect. As of right now, the two biggest question marks for Walker are his size and his shooting ability. Yes, his wingspan is impressive, but not exactly rare for a modern NBA big. At 6'6.5, he's almost guaranteed to be smaller than anyone he matches up against at power forward, and there's an argument to be made that height matters more for big men than wingspan does. There are reasons to believe he could eventually slot in at small forward in big lineups, or center in small ones.

It is impressive that he manages to maintain such high level athleticism at almost 250 pounds but, as of right now, he does not have the interior polish or size to play center on a regular basis. He's not Zion Williamson, but I don't think nearly enough questions have been raised around him weighing as much as he does at 6'6.5. You don't want him to lose weight as it's a huge part of his appeal, but if he were to gain an extra 10-15 pounds there could be issues in terms of sapping his explosiveness, or increasing his risk for injury. I already compared Walker to Larry Johnson, one has to remember that Johnson was out of the league by 32 largely due to chronic back injuries sustained from trying to balance such a large body with such incredible athletic ability. Walker doesn't quite have Johnson's leaping ability, but I believe it's worth keeping an eye on.

Perhaps the biggest concern from a Pistons perspective however is Walker's largely inconsistent and overall unimpressive perimeter shooting. Walker only shot 34% from three on 2.8 attempts per game for Houston last year, and faded down the stretch hitting only 26% of his threes over his final 13 games for the Cougars on 3.8 attempts attempts per game. In his first 23 games of the season, however, Walker hit 42% of his 2.3 three-point attempts per game. When talking about a sample size of 101 total attempts, it can be difficult to parse whether the numbers are indicative of poor shooting, or simply limited sample size, and Walker's case is no different. Unlike other prospects with questionable outside games (the Thompson twins immediately spring to mind here) it's much easier to see Walker developing into at least a league average three point shooter, and with his driving ability, passing chops and quick first step off the dribble, it's easy to see that being more than enough for Walker to put together a complete offensive game that can hurt opposing teams in a multitude of ways. He doesn't have the quickest or smoothest release, but seeing shots like the ones below absolutely show a player with the potential to be a real danger on the perimeter.

https://twitter.com/drewgoodenssuit/status/1622448000025989120?s=20

Fit:

Few, if any players in this draft fit the mold of what the Pistons potentially need from their pick better than Jarace Walker. Detroit has lacked a dynamic two-way forward for years. Blake Griffin was an incredible offensive player, but offered little in terms of defense. Tobias Harris was an efficient and dangerous scorer, his offense was entirely singular and he offered little in terms of passing or team offense. Walker has a chance to be the type of player every single team in the league needs, a big, athletic, versatile and team-oriented talent on both ends of the floor who isn't necessarily a star himself, but allows the Pistons stars to be the best versions of themselves.

His defense, unselfish play and ability to operate comfortably within new head coach Monty Williams' system regardless of where he slots into the lineup or how many shots he takes during the course of the game could make him the missing piece in the Motor City. If the Pistons do decide to select him, they'll have to convince themselves that they'll be able to mold him into a consistent shooter, and surround him with players that can work with his unique skillset and body type. Having two excellent young playmakers in Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey in the backcourt and the physically imposing yet similarly skilled Jalen Duren next to him in the frontcourt certainly seems like an idea situation for Jarace Walker to reach his ceiling as a player.

Conclusion:

Jarace Walker is most likely not going to be a traditional star in the NBA. He's not a high-volume scorer, nor is he the type of player that requires the ball in his hands at all times to make the offense hum. For GM Troy Weaver to pull the trigger, he's going to have to buy into Walker as the ideal compliment to future stars in Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham. There are other players at his position (Taylor Hendricks in particular) that also fit the mold of what Detroit is looking for in terms of outside shooting and versatile defense, but lack the overall dynamism that Walker brings to the table on both ends of the floor. If Detroit is looking for their Swiss Army knife, their do-it-all forward of the future, the spoon that stirs the pot, they should look no further than Jarace Walker.