How things can go right for the Detroit Pistons
It's easy to see how things could go desperately wrong for the Detroit Pistons this year. Tied for the lowest title odds in the NBA, and sporting Vegas's second lowest projected win total at 27.5, Detroit enters the season with question marks throughout its roster and organization.
How long will owner Tom Gores endure a rebuild? Is General Manager Troy Weaver the right man for the job, or is he hopelessly confused in his attempts at building a competent roster? Is new head coach Monty Williams worth one of the richest coaching contracts in league history? Is returning star Cade Cunningham REALLY the man to lead the show? What are the roles for newly-extended Isaiah Stewart, last year's fifth-overall pick Jaden Ivey and this year's fifth-overall pick Ausar Thompson going to look like? How many players on this roster can even expect to STILL be on the team by the end of the year? These are just a few storylines among perhaps a dozen more for a team still trying to find it's identity.
While the worst case scenarios have been apparent to even casual observers of the team throughout the preseason, it can be a little more difficult to see how things could actually go right for Detroit this year, and how they can not only exceed 27 wins but blow right by those expectations. Let's try to examine how the Pistons can do just that, and cement themselves as one of the premier young squads in the NBA.
Cade Cunningham is a superstar
Since the day he was drafted first-overall by the Pistons, it has been made clear by the front office that they view Cunningham as the future of the franchise. After finishing third in rookie of the year voting in 2021-22, Cade was unable to follow up during his sophomore season, only appearing in 12 games before undergoing season-ending surgery on his injured leg. Now back and firmly entrenched as the star of Detroit’s backcourt, it’s not exactly a hot take to say this team will go as far as he can take them.
If Cade can average something in the range of 22 points, six rebounds and six assists per game while playing at least 60 games, that would put him in the same category of exactly two players from last season- Luka Doncic, and Nikola Jokic. Even if we expand those criteria to the past five NBA seasons, only six players have matched those benchmarks: Doncic, Jokic, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James and Julius Randle. None of their teams finished that year with fewer than 34 wins, and even in that case, it was only because a global pandemic shortened the 2020-21 season by 10 games.
If Cunningham can reach those statistical benchmarks, which aren’t THAT far off from the 17.4/5.5/5.6 he averaged as a rookie, there’s an extremely good chance the Pistons can not only improve, but likely double their season win total from last year. The season opener against the Miami Heat proved exactly that, with Cade's 30 points and nine assists (along with zero second half turnovers) leading the way in Detroit's furious 4th quarter comeback to nearly snatch a victory from the reigning Eastern Conference champions. With consistent performances like that, Detroit will have a chance to be competitive every single night.
Monty Williams coaches his ass off
It’s no secret that Monty Williams turned down Detroit when first approached by the Pistons front office during their coaching search this offseason. It’s also no secret that team owner Tom Gores refused to take no for an answer, giving Williams (at the time, since surpassed by Greg Popovich) the richest contract in NBA coaching history at a whopping six years and $78.5 million. This wasn’t just Gores throwing money around willy-nilly, Williams was largely responsible for the Phoenix Suns going from one of the laughingstocks of the league with a 19-63 record before he was hired, to 34-39 his first year on the job, to the NBA Finals the following season. Gores knew exactly what he wanted, a coach who can connect to young rosters and lead them to massive improvements year over year.
In order for the Pistons to take a similar kind of leap in Williams’ first year, things will have to change. Detroit barely ran in transition during former head coach Dwane Casey’s time at the helm, with Williams in charge, expect the Pistons to get out in the open court and push the pace with their elite athletes in Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren.
Detroit’s defense will also have to take massive strides forward. Their defensive rating last year was an abysmal 119 points per 100 possessions, third worst in the NBA. Williams has already instituted some controversial changes there. Jaden Ivey (who took over the reigns at point guard after Cunningham’s injury last year) will likely be starting the season coming off the bench in favor of Killian Hayes. Considering Hayes has been one of the worst players in the entire league since being drafted by Detroit, and Ivey was an outside contender for Rookie of the Year, this move has been met with doubt in many circles. Whether it works or not has yet to be seen, but philosophically, it makes sense for a new coach who wants to emphasize tough defense to put his best defensive five on the floor to start the game in Cunningham, Hayes, Ausar Thompson, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren.
The real questions arise when it comes to who will close games, or what will become of Stewart or Hayes when both veteran guard Monte Morris and sharpshooting wing Bojan Bogdanovic (hopefully) return from injury in about a month. For now, it’s clear that Williams has his own plans for the roster and how they’ll be playing differently than they have the past few years. If Detroit’s defense can simply go from horrid to respectable, it’s easy to see them squeaking out 5-10 more victories in close games than they did last year.
Detroit finally pulls the plug on Isaiah Stewart as the starting power forward
Before we get into this, it's worth noting that during the Pistons opening night loss to the Heat, Isaiah Stewart shot 2-3 on his three point attempts and had the best ON/OFF splits of any player on the team at a staggering +42.9. Still, I'm not going to sit here and lie to you: I don't believe that Isaiah Stewart playing as the Detroit Pistons starting power forward is ultimately going to work. This isn’t a wish list, it’s a realistic look at how Detroit could make a leap, and at this point I think it’s frankly unrealistic to expect Stewart to be anything more than he’s shown at any extended period of time in his career. The longer the Pistons continue to drag out this “experiment,” they risk not only losing games, but stunting the development of far more important players on this team in Duren, Cunningham, Ivey and Thompson.
Stewart’s lack of shooting (33.1% from long range for his career) means opposing teams can leave him open on the perimeter and clog up the paint. His lack of cutting means they can focus on Detroit’s ball-handlers with little fear of being punished for it, and his inability to navigate a pick and roll means teams can crowd Cunningham at the top of the key, exposing his lack of elite quickness and forcing him into contested midrange jumpers. Additionally, he's one of the league's worst post up men, ranking in the 7th percentile of all qualified NBA players last season.
Some, including Weaver, will try to tell you that all Stewart requires is patience, that he's working hard and the shot will eventually come around. Unfortunately, there's just not much statistical evidence to back that belief up. While Stewart did shoot 41% from three on exactly 100 attempts over the course of November and December last year, he has never been treated as a threat by opposing defenses. In fact, 39% of his total field goal attempts last season were wide-open threes (wide open threes are defined by the NBA as having no defender within 6 feet of the shooter). Stewart's percentage on those shots was a measly 34.5%, simply unacceptable for any player expected to space the floor. Furthermore, according to NBA.com's tracking data Stewart had NEVER connected on a single contested three point attempt in his entire career before opening night. It's just not a viable strategy for a team that needs to give Cade Cunningham space to operate in the pick and roll and reliable shooters to kick the ball out to on the perimeter.
The key for Detroit is not to figure out how Stewart can fit into the starting lineup, it’s to take him out of it entirely. The solution as I see it is to replace him as power forward with scintillating rookie Ausar Thompson while inserting Bojan Bogdanovic as the starting small forward. Thompson proved he has the strength to bang down low by stonewalling Jimmy Butler and Ban Adebayo multiple times in the post en-route to an incredible five blocks, most all-time in a NBA debut by a non-center. While Bogdanovic certainly represents an overall downgrade defensively, the drop-off shouldn’t be too bad with four other excellent defenders around him, especially with a backcourt featuring long, smart and physical defenders in Cunningham and Hayes.
Whatever fall-off there might be defensively, would almost certainly be offset by the gigantic upgrade in shooting and off-ball movement. There is even an argument to be made that Thompson may prove to be an even more effective rim protecter than Stewart, simply because of his absurd length and athleticism. The real drop-off would likely come in the rebounding department, as Stewart and Jalen Duren combined for a ridiculous 31 boards on opening night, but with big bodies in Thompson, Cunningham and Hayes alongside Duren, the Pistons could conceivably make up for the absence of Stewart on the glass with better team rebounding.
This also means Stewart can fulfill his destiny as one of the best backup big men in the league. While he doesn’t work as a starting power forward, he can be an absolutely punishing option off the bench, with his physicality and toughness giving him the ability to grab rebounds, score under the basket when necessary, and provide excellent rim defense. If Detroit is set on still seeing if he can play power forward, that’s fine, just do it for seven minutes a game off of the bench instead of 25 minutes a game as a starter.
Even more than that, it would mean that dead-weight big men Marvin Bagley and James Wiseman would likely no longer be receiving playing time, the definition of “addition by subtraction.” That being said, Bagley performed well on opening night to the tune of eight points, eight rebounds and three assists. Occasional good games against defensively challenged backup bigs has never been the issue with him, it's always been consistency. The Pistons would be better suited bringing Stewart off the bench to bully opposing backups on the glass and filling out their starting lineup with shooters to compliment their clear-cut star in Cade Cunningham.
Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey living their best lives
Last but not least, (this article is by no means exhaustive, a LOT needs to go right for Detroit to even approach 35 wins in a highly competitive Eastern Conference) a pair of top-five draft picks need to be able to reach the ceilings of their respective roles this year. First, Thompson must be exactly what Detroit drafted him to be, an absolutely out of this world athlete who provides highlight reel plays on both ends of the floor.
Thompson doesn’t need to be an elite shooter in order to help the Pistons, he simply needs to provide enough of an outside threat for defenses to avoid constantly sagging off of him, unleashing his elite cutting skills as an off-ball scorer. Sprinkling in 3-5 possessions a game where he can bring the ball up the floor as a primary creator will also allow Cade Cunningham to occasionally play off-ball, and build on Thompson’s already burgeoning ability to handle and pass the ball as a secondary playmaker.
Where Thompson can truly aid the team is on the other end, where he may be able to finally solve the issue of Detroit’s wing defense, a massive problem for the Pistons since Joe Dumars extended a mostly washed-up Tayshaun Prince over a decade ago. Ausar is a freak athlete with an incredible basketball IQ and endless motor, and his defensive ceiling is genuinely that of a first-team all-defense player. With the ability to create steals, stay in front of opposing wings both in the paint and on the perimeter and block layups and jumpers seemingly at will, Thompson can do just about anything you ask of him on that end. In order for Detroit to exceed 27.5 wins, he'll need to not just be their best defender, but one of the better defenders in the entire NBA this season. It's not likely, but as crazy as it sounds, it is possible.
Additionally, Jaden Ivey must embrace his new role coming off the bench. It can’t be an easy pill to swallow for the Purdue product, he was simply sensational at times last season, growing as a passer, shooter, and yes, even as a defender. It’s that last point that is most likely responsible for Ivey coming off of the bench, Monty Williams has said he prioritizes defense and Ivey was quite simply one of the worst defenders in the entire NBA last year. Still, there’s reason for hope on that end, there were several games in the second half of last season where he was able to use his athleticism and physicality to stay in front of opposing players, and he fought over screens with a vigor that was clearly not there in the first half.
In order for Detroit to reach their potential, Ivey will have to recognize his shortcomings as a ball handler (there were too many possessions in Summer League, preseason and the season opener against the Heat where he dribbled the air out of the ball so much it would make former Piston Reggie Jackson blush) as well as a defender. Ivey will still have a sizable role on this team, but his success in Detroit absolutely depends on him fixing his flaws as a defender, and embracing a more team-focused approach as an offensive player.
Coming off of the bench after such an exciting rookie season has to be frustrating, but if he can work on his issues while also providing the same explosive scoring, highlight reel passes and blazing transition play, Jaden Ivey will not just elevate the play of Detroit’s bench, but quickly find himself back in the starting lineup as one of the cornerstones of the Pistons future. Things didn't start well for him against Miami, where he was 1-7 from the floor with three turnovers, but he has time to figure things out before the return of Monte Morris and will almost certainly be given a long leash in the meantime, given his draft pedigree and still sky-high ceiling.
(Featured image by Jerome Miron/USA Today Sports)